BFCM 2026 Holiday Strategy. Black Friday & Cyber Monday are almost here.

Fall and holiday inventory is beginning to enter the U.S. supply chain, and the numbers are proving it.

The Port of Los Angeles processed 840,165 containers in May, a 17% increase from the same period last year. Loaded imports increased 26%, and port leadership projected another historically strong month with more than 900,000 containers expected to move through the port.

While every container is not carrying holiday merchandise, the increase is a clear indication that companies are bringing products, components, and seasonal inventory into the country earlier. Businesses are moving quickly when shipping conditions provide an opportunity, especially as tariffs, energy costs, and geopolitical risks continue to create uncertainty. 

For operators Black Friday 2026 Holiday, this means preparation is no longer a late-summer conversation. Inventory is already moving, and the operational calendar is moving with it.

September Is Becoming Part of Black Friday & Cyber Monday.

There has been speculation that Amazon could move its fall Prime event from October into September. Amazon’s current seller guidance does not confirm that change, but its inventory deadlines already begin in early September.

That distinction matters. Even if the consumer-facing event remains in October, brands must have inventory received, counted, allocated, and positioned weeks earlier. September can no longer be treated as a preparation month. By then, inventory needs to be available across the correct warehouses and sales channels.

Amazon’s event will also influence the broader retail market. Competing promotions, earlier discounting, and consumers beginning their holiday shopping sooner will create demand well before Black Friday.

Return and Restocking Fees Will Be Applied More Broadly

The other major shift will happen after the sale.

Return shipping fees and restocking fees are expected to become more common as brands confront higher carrier costs, processing labor, damaged packaging, fraud, and inventory that cannot immediately be returned to a sellable condition.

These fees will likely be applied most heavily to oversized products, opened merchandise, low-margin items, and returns requiring inspection, repackaging, refurbishment, or liquidation.

This is not simply a policy decision. It is an operational and customer-experience decision. A return fee may protect margin, but an unclear policy or poorly managed return process can damage customer trust. Brands need to understand the actual cost of a return before deciding when a fee applies and how it will be communicated.

Inventory Planning Cannot Stop at the Sale

Bringing inventory in early solves only one part of the holiday challenge. Brands also need the systems, processes, and labor required to receive, store, allocate, fulfill, and potentially recover that inventory after a return.

• Before demand accelerates, leadership teams should be able to answer several important questions:

• Is inventory positioned in the correct warehouse and sales channel?

• Are replenishment triggers based on current demand instead of last year’s calendar?

• Are return shipping and restocking fees clearly defined?

• Can returned inventory be inspected and placed back into stock quickly?

• Are promotional discounts, fulfillment costs, return expenses, and labor included in margin planning?

• Does the warehouse have enough capacity for both inbound holiday inventory and January returns?

The increase in port activity is proof that the 2026 inventory cycle is already underway. Brands that wait for traditional peak-season signals may find themselves reacting to demand while competitors are already selling.

Holiday growth will not be determined by how much inventory a company brings in. It will be determined by how effectively that inventory is controlled before, during, and after the sale.

ScaledRight helps growing DTC and E-commerce brands prepare the people, processes, and technology behind peak-season execution.

Let's Build Something Beautiful. 

The ScaledRight Way.

Right people. Right process. Right tech.